Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.118091 0.133264 0.149664 0.168714 0.190240 0.213822 0.241626
2025-12-21 0.093118 0.112824 0.135694 0.164217 0.198875 0.239669 0.291406
2025-12-28 0.078310 0.101184 0.129495 0.167162 0.216055 0.277504 0.360819
2026-01-04 0.064763 0.088816 0.120416 0.165062 0.226693 0.309044 0.427904
2026-01-11 0.055065 0.079839 0.114254 0.165696 0.240937 0.347440 0.510515
2026-01-18 0.047858 0.073105 0.110058 0.168302 0.258262 0.392720 0.610431
2026-01-25 0.039718 0.063680 0.100497 0.161462 0.260532 0.416326 0.682143
2026-02-01 0.032858 0.055118 0.090912 0.152987 0.258793 0.433325 0.746182
2026-02-08 0.028004 0.049025 0.084310 0.148242 0.262257 0.459065 0.828829
2026-02-15 0.023900 0.043557 0.077912 0.142786 0.263536 0.481121 0.908554
2026-02-22 0.021624 0.040960 0.076094 0.145134 0.279050 0.530584 1.046493
2026-03-01 0.018788 0.036895 0.071016 0.140612 0.280934 0.554983 1.140372
2026-03-08 0.016518 0.033648 0.067139 0.138092 0.286900 0.589305 1.262625
2026-03-15 0.014574 0.030753 0.063531 0.135567 0.292514 0.623976 1.392311
2026-03-22 0.013448 0.029371 0.062772 0.138856 0.310931 0.688327 1.598450
2026-03-29 0.012079 0.027259 0.060173 0.137755 0.319585 0.733031 1.768592
2026-04-05 0.011046 0.025733 0.058618 0.138758 0.333218 0.791228 1.981682
2026-04-12 0.010239 0.024601 0.057779 0.141291 0.350911 0.861875 2.238888
2026-04-19 0.009012 0.022290 0.053873 0.135823 0.348162 0.882737 2.373308
2026-04-26 0.007860 0.019986 0.049649 0.128896 0.340593 0.890356 2.474405
2026-05-03 0.007019 0.018338 0.046799 0.125039 0.340411 0.917052 2.633105
2026-05-10 0.006247 0.016754 0.043881 0.120544 0.337778 0.936837 2.776302
2026-05-17 0.005862 0.016140 0.043394 0.122589 0.353658 1.010160 3.090871